Forecast

Recent OECD forecast expects a decline of economic growth in Slovakia to approximately 7 percent in 2009. Among other factors influencing this outlook, a slowdown of EU economies is to be blamed. More comments in Slovak Spectator's article.

More interesting is the economic performance under changed economic conditions after adopting euro. Although some expect the growth to decline as a result due to Maastricht fiscal ceiling, fiscal discipline is definitely not the only factor influencing the expected outcome. Taking into account that currency-switching is a very specific situation, one should not omit the long-term effects of euro on economic growth.

In my humble opinion, policy makers should have at hand a strategy for further development in form of an industrial policy vision. For this, measurements of the allocation efficiency of public funds for FDI stimuli should be considered. That is to say, that FDI in the automotive industry might have already exploited the existing economies of scale opportunities, which means that a further contribution of this sector to economic growth may not be so robust anymore. For a small country, in addition, a fast adjustment in competitiveness seems to be the key priority of economic policy. Without a scientific guidance in economic policy-making, it is hard to follow optimal solutions, unbiased by ideological disputes.