tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-65079366726984313132024-02-21T14:33:25.297+01:00Central- European Economics WatchThis blog deals with recent economic, economics, and political economy developments in Central Europe (so far predominantly with Slovakia and the Czech Republic). Feel free to contribute with your own posts! Send your texts to: michal.lehuta@gmail.com, and you will get an invitation with access rights.Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.comBlogger92125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-30742661196309382942013-09-18T16:20:00.001+02:002013-09-18T16:20:35.935+02:00Poland Nationalizing its Pension Funds<a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2013/09/17/polands-piggish-pols-theyre-not-alone/">http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2013/09/17/polands-piggish-pols-theyre-not-alone/</a>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-72494125595727109832013-07-11T22:55:00.001+02:002013-07-11T22:55:11.826+02:00Hungary No Longer a High-Income CountrySays the <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/news/new-country-classifications?cid=EXT_LinkedinWorldBank_P_EXT">World Bank</a>.Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-71020458890430501512013-05-03T10:23:00.000+02:002013-05-03T10:23:01.498+02:00Unemployment Rates in EuropeHere's a map I created yesterday with the latest available data:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAL19RuYGaG497GJ-Hjf341fndcOZ1iaQJQ457be57FGrBRBTRnSJumncYdEQ6rpksKgfgwvpTsqMLZeVYKrXQk0ekeEM9gEYK-_zfeHMOjPW0MZJB3TpTYzjDA8tJ47dw_9zWsFvgyO8/s1600/unempEU.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAL19RuYGaG497GJ-Hjf341fndcOZ1iaQJQ457be57FGrBRBTRnSJumncYdEQ6rpksKgfgwvpTsqMLZeVYKrXQk0ekeEM9gEYK-_zfeHMOjPW0MZJB3TpTYzjDA8tJ47dw_9zWsFvgyO8/s320/unempEU.png" width="320" /></a></div>
Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-13972016046644896962013-05-02T21:06:00.001+02:002013-05-02T21:08:55.497+02:00Central Europe's Love for GermanyKristína Mikulová, a fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations (and a former correspondent of The Economist), <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kristina-mikulova/central-europes-pivot-to-_b_3194342.html">writes for the Huffington Post</a> about the geopolitics of the Visegrád Four countries.Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-33525319416026215252012-12-19T22:13:00.004+01:002012-12-19T22:20:49.965+01:00Dates to watch in 2013<br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.25pt;">11.-12.1. The Czechs elect their president, for the first time by a direct vote </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt;">15.-16.1. Euromoney conference – The Central and Eastern European Forum </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13px;">– will be held </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.25pt;">in Vienna</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt;">14.2. Flash estimates of the 4Q2012 GDP will be released</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt;">February - Latvia officially applies for Eurozone membership</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt;">19.3. Energy conference "Inside Ukraine" of The Economist magazine to be held in Vienna</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt;">22.4. Eurostat published 2012 debt and deficit figures for EU countries</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt;">30.4. Slovak Council for Budget Responsibility will publish its first estimate of the country's "net wealth"</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt;">2.5. The Governing Council of the ECB will meet in Bratislava, Slovakia</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt;">May – ECB's Convergence Report will most probably conclude that Latvia has met all criteria and may join the Eurozone in 2014</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt;">around 20.6. – Eurostat to publish GDP per capita in PPS, the 2012 figures. Slovakia will have matched Portugal and Greece.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 14.25pt;">1.7. Croatia becomes the 28th member of the EU</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt;">around 22.10. – Eurostat will publish estimates whether the countries meet their three-percent public finance deficit targets in 2013</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 10pt;">November – TREND magazine awards Slovak firm, bank and an insurance company of the year</span></div>
Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-81757898844917698782012-05-11T22:44:00.002+02:002012-05-11T22:53:50.333+02:00Europe according to GDP per capita<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsze5-BQsXTDZluHboGQyhzSfwqKGz4k7czTedG8VEdKpgWeemAwujbPKIn6adNH-9VkDCrD_yYoxKLH671BPHTDr7mQjlM6mSfRTlySHoXIXg2tvdibDl0ZEdtjG7yeYLrCidORQrWLs/s1600/gdpcapita.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsze5-BQsXTDZluHboGQyhzSfwqKGz4k7czTedG8VEdKpgWeemAwujbPKIn6adNH-9VkDCrD_yYoxKLH671BPHTDr7mQjlM6mSfRTlySHoXIXg2tvdibDl0ZEdtjG7yeYLrCidORQrWLs/s320/gdpcapita.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Eurostat's data for 2010 supplemented with missing countries (e.g., Ukraine, Kosovo) from the IMF and the World Bank.<br />
<br />Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-45341358886634842032012-04-06T20:38:00.004+02:002012-04-06T20:42:00.708+02:00Most Productive Regions of the Former Eastern BlocHere are the economic centers of Central and Eastern Europe, as seen by the Eurostat and their GDP per capita rank (% of the EU27 average in PPS):<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLd1dOtcOnFNO2EvFznwq2nbglV5uZP3LcFR3Pd7ED0PdU1YQcl50FA3HAQbraZN1ey2Jtb53NDiGQAP2ydsWktcyrHhTmRVAHYKdC476TfvgIqOahs-TNkKmu1va8gS_FsWCVQSeUwKE/s1600/eastern.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 341px; height: 312px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLd1dOtcOnFNO2EvFznwq2nbglV5uZP3LcFR3Pd7ED0PdU1YQcl50FA3HAQbraZN1ey2Jtb53NDiGQAP2ydsWktcyrHhTmRVAHYKdC476TfvgIqOahs-TNkKmu1va8gS_FsWCVQSeUwKE/s400/eastern.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5728359355095046098" border="0" /></a>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-80660042582123127722012-04-04T12:30:00.003+02:002012-04-04T12:32:33.179+02:00Europe According to Slovaks<div style="text-align: center;"><br />My contribution to the "Europe According to" mania :)<div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwxOGH5Wdkh9R7H1E2hfxiNX-5rbZlF4j4sXvre9ChZS6tMCE7mgNHhpi-5d0kIiLn0M0fJGtGiT1-p-Y21pC2A9RQzirkDFO882Me19tofE0PVSBMsjNAq9UxEcrAXHyXvl9H2VUANKQ/s1600/ACCORDINGTO.JPG"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 267px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwxOGH5Wdkh9R7H1E2hfxiNX-5rbZlF4j4sXvre9ChZS6tMCE7mgNHhpi-5d0kIiLn0M0fJGtGiT1-p-Y21pC2A9RQzirkDFO882Me19tofE0PVSBMsjNAq9UxEcrAXHyXvl9H2VUANKQ/s400/ACCORDINGTO.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5727491495024255106" border="0" /></a></div> </div>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-20655700191734248952010-06-24T14:38:00.001+02:002010-06-24T14:39:33.684+02:00Draxler on the elections' results in CZ, SK<a href="http://www.praguepost.com/opinion/4809-the-long-and-winding-road.html">http://www.praguepost.com/opinion/4809-the-long-and-winding-road.html</a>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-51907437872236425312009-11-09T19:44:00.006+01:002009-11-10T09:10:16.485+01:00Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM6KVJ0EAeNhyincRskJPuw-vD_XNhhB95rwmNd_it36gIs4L8MB9gEktW6iTY7tYyGhlGhKSEuYEP0zgtHBbnlRZomLatRNZ9S8RQXGo7mSVvxieHFKWG32ilOYyZdYH_-HxANT95G6s/s1600-h/CEE.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 203px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM6KVJ0EAeNhyincRskJPuw-vD_XNhhB95rwmNd_it36gIs4L8MB9gEktW6iTY7tYyGhlGhKSEuYEP0zgtHBbnlRZomLatRNZ9S8RQXGo7mSVvxieHFKWG32ilOYyZdYH_-HxANT95G6s/s400/CEE.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5402178229851248866" border="0" /></a><br />Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are the three richest countries of the former Eastern Bloc with regard to GDP per person. Yet, their living standars still fall behind their Western-European counterparts'. Whereas Slovenia reaches roughly 62% of the Western-European average, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are only at 41-42%, and the rest of the region lies further down the chart. <a href="http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14793753">The Economist reports</a>.Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-53558567619562892142009-08-27T12:42:00.004+02:002009-08-27T12:50:38.442+02:00Moving This BlogAs my employer finally managed to upgrade <a href="http://www.etrend.sk/">its website</a>, I will be moving much of the future posts from this blog to <a href="http://www.etrend.sk/trend-analyses-en.html">www.trendanalyses.sk</a> (all articles are also in English). See, for example, our recent texts (<a href="http://www.etrend.sk/analyses/inflation-decelerates-statistics-confuse.html">1</a>, <a href="http://www.etrend.sk/analyses/statisticians-will-fix-its-inflation-figures.html">2</a>) on distorted inflation figures published by the Slovak Statistical Office. RSS channel will soon be available for the TREND Analyses' homepage. Occasionally, however, there might be issues, links, graphs etc. that appear only in this blog, so please remain subscribed.Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-1333256641812268032009-08-19T14:40:00.001+02:002009-08-19T14:41:50.786+02:00Unemployment Increasing Despite Season<div style="text-align: justify;">Despite little smaller GDP decline in the second quarter as well as favorable summer season, registered unemployment in Slovakia continues to grow. In July, it reached 12.1% of labor force, and is expected to grow in the coming months as well. Current unemployment rate increase (4.6 percentage points annually) is the largest ever, and joblessness is now reaching highest levels since 2004. Strained labor market, where supply of labor abundantly exceeds the demand for it, is caused by global economic crisis, which manifests itself particularly in shrunk foreign demand for local exports. Lower production thus requires considerably fewer workers compared to times of economic boom in 2006-7.<br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In this context, the proposal of trade unions for increasing the statutory minimum wage by 8.1%, when consumer inflation approaches zero, must be regarded as irresponsible. Considerably increasing the minimum wage in times when many companies operate without any profits could endanger thousands more jobs in the economy.</div>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-15717255037682261252009-08-16T10:26:00.009+02:002009-08-16T18:47:50.057+02:00One Central-European Stock Market?<div style="text-align: justify;">Corporate finance in Central Europe is dominated by bank lending. However, 94 IPOs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange last year, together with Prague and Ljubljana exchanges being recently acquired by Wiener Börse, point to interesting developments.<br />For this year, privatization of Warsaw Stock Exchange is planned. This way, the Vienna exchange could theoretically overtake its regional rival and form Europe's eight largest market for shares. Or the acquisition can happen the other way around, with the privatized Polish exchange acquiring Wiener Börse. Nevertheless, for now both exchanges deny the possibility of allowing one to buy the other.<br />Largest stock exchanges in Europe according to market capitalization <a href="http://fese.bitsystems.it/fese/pages/home/report_pdf.jsp?allExc=1&format=pdf&table=2">are</a>: Euronext, LSE, Spanish exchange, Deutsche Börse and the Swiss exchange.<br /></div>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-17147934186157261252009-07-30T11:21:00.005+02:002009-07-30T12:51:51.051+02:00Capital Bears More of the Crisis Burden than Labor<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwcUUJS4p5fdjpbrRQbpOzEwQYQCg9S332n5OKhD3vh8tFMLbIccnRXkUApMVatbHl6MKmIm4Fw8sAIzpotmtNRpD1eWpswy75ABNA3lTvXDeq8w1R6O_ixw3xDh8lwVgj1F9VkBcZcsg/s1600-h/profits.JPG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 484px; height: 203px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwcUUJS4p5fdjpbrRQbpOzEwQYQCg9S332n5OKhD3vh8tFMLbIccnRXkUApMVatbHl6MKmIm4Fw8sAIzpotmtNRpD1eWpswy75ABNA3lTvXDeq8w1R6O_ixw3xDh8lwVgj1F9VkBcZcsg/s400/profits.JPG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5364181044471368530" border="0" /></a>Share of corporate operating surplus on gross value added. Share of labor compensation is the complement to 100%. Source: <a href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-30072009-AP/EN/2-30072009-AP-EN.PDF">Eurostat</a>.Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-42956060999765994062009-07-22T11:13:00.014+02:002009-07-22T21:51:09.352+02:00Fed's Exit Strategy<div style="text-align: justify;">Fed's chairman Ben Bernanke published <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203946904574300050657897992.html">an article in WSJ</a> explaining the central bank's financial exit strategy after it pumped billions into the economy in an attempt to fight the negative effects of the crisis.<br />The Fed will need "to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem," Bernanke writes. This should be achieved by eliminating large reserve balances of banks. To do that, the Fed could increase its target for federal funds rate, attracting liquidity back into its own hands. Moreover, in case the federal funds rate does not react sufficiently to the rate Fed will pay on deposited reserves, the Reserve or the Treasury could arrange large-scale "reverse repurchase agreements" - that is, issuing their own securities and sterilizing thus gained liquidity.<br />The timing and pace of such instrument should best foster Fed's objectives of maximum employment and price stability, the chairman concludes.<br /></div>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-57916680891873935252009-07-05T12:24:00.004+02:002009-07-05T12:29:53.379+02:00NYT Coverage on Slovakia<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/04/business/global/04slovakia.html?_r=3&pagewanted=1">"Neighbor’s Shadow Still Large in Slovakia"</a><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/04/business/global/04slovakia.html?_r=3&pagewanted=1"></a>. I am not sure the title is really capturing the main issue in the country, but the article provides ample important insights into the happenings in Slovakia.Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-58537813406435015412009-07-01T12:47:00.001+02:002009-07-01T14:19:15.996+02:00Top 10 Slovak Companies in 2008Rank, Name, Industry, Sales in 2008 (individual)<br /><br />1. Volkswagen Slovakia, automotive, €5.37 billion<br />2. Slovnaft, oil refining, €4.03 billion<br />3. Samsung Electronics, electronics, €3.52 billion<br />4. U.S. Steel Košice, metallurgy, €2.93 billion<br />5. SPP, gas distribution, €2.90 billion<br />6. Kia Motors, automotive, €2.23 billion,<br />7. Slovenské elektrárne, energy, €1.96 billion<br />8. PCA Slovakia, automotive, €1.74 billion<br />9. Sony Slovakia, electronics, €1.40 billion<br />10. Západoslovenská energetika, energy, €1.11 billion<br /><br />Source: TREND Top 200. Last year's results can be found in our <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fce-economics.blogspot.com%2F2008%2F07%2Ftop-10-slovak-companies.html&ei=WTVLSp_aONXI_gazqeCFCQ&usg=AFQjCNHnBmZEaUDp63B_3C5vQjVNTXyH2Q">earlier post</a>.Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-68256119220583369232009-06-03T15:53:00.009+02:002009-06-03T16:04:42.355+02:00V4 Wages Suffering from Currencies' Depreciation<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZY1IkpCbdsR3H3JSgrBFqDrC8ab8jEk5_qypNYeWa6Hg5yxpCmvzmhO2aGGNIzoVUhLb-inpkmO5Ntxe2Udo1pcIQaWooHaHSm0MuJTZ4qZXrX_vBOCyVFMBdS0lnYd4k6HELD1jMJtc/s1600-h/v4salaries.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 378px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZY1IkpCbdsR3H3JSgrBFqDrC8ab8jEk5_qypNYeWa6Hg5yxpCmvzmhO2aGGNIzoVUhLb-inpkmO5Ntxe2Udo1pcIQaWooHaHSm0MuJTZ4qZXrX_vBOCyVFMBdS0lnYd4k6HELD1jMJtc/s400/v4salaries.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5343099374069111842" border="0" /></a>Currency depreciations pulled down the Euro purchasing power of V4 wages in the first quarter of this year, with the exception of Slovakia, which had a fixed exchange rate to Euro de facto from May 28, 2008. For the first time, thus, average gross salary in Slovakia is not the lowest in Central Europe. Note: the 1q09 value for the Czech Republic is an estimate.</div>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-45615363421579754932009-05-25T14:43:00.004+02:002009-05-25T14:58:44.033+02:00Higher Deficits Don't Help MuchA recent study of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) finds fiscal stimuli relatively ineffective. <span style="font-style: italic;"><br /><br />"An increase of deficit by one percentage point of GDP permanently would increase GDP growth only in the short-term - by 0.4% in the first year, and 0.2% in the following periods. After six quarters, the GDP dynamic would return to its original level. The major effect of such permanent deficit increase would be lasting increase in real interest rates."</span><br /><br />The paper by Michal Benčík can be found at the <a href="http://www.nbs.sk/sk/publikacie/vyskumne-studie">NBS's website</a> (in Slovak).Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-53588934358430552672009-05-22T14:49:00.014+02:002009-05-23T10:12:44.372+02:00V4 Currencies: SKK Gone Strong, PLN and HUF Down<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhar3QYej8iPVWrwaxp0phDoSaWIdi5XzCa5BbU6gxYOQ_WUVltAiKgAxZTHdM0pVI-KQfsio2-MvpFZRRoQ7Br3F25gbpFiiWZbBk3j97K9H6_ocYIaXsE9Mt6xWazRSK2kT3uWjQbvOg/s1600-h/V4currencies.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 342px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhar3QYej8iPVWrwaxp0phDoSaWIdi5XzCa5BbU6gxYOQ_WUVltAiKgAxZTHdM0pVI-KQfsio2-MvpFZRRoQ7Br3F25gbpFiiWZbBk3j97K9H6_ocYIaXsE9Mt6xWazRSK2kT3uWjQbvOg/s400/V4currencies.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338632596813749666" border="0" /></a>This is a graph depicting the purchasing power of Visegrád Four currencies vis-à-vis Euro since November 2005, when Slovak Koruna entered the ERM II system. The figure shows that the Slovak currency has been fixed to Euro at the time when all V4 currencies registered their several-year highs (summer 2008). After criris-related depreciation of CZK, PLN and HUF, this strong conversion rate made Slovakia relatively more expensive to its neighbors, which hampers exports but tames inflation. More information can be found in TREND Analyses' <a href="http://onas.etrend.sk/trend-analyses/skmacroppt/132894.html">macropresentation</a>.</div>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-64182074344975463482009-05-15T11:39:00.014+02:002009-05-23T10:13:21.033+02:001Q 2009: Economies Shrank Considerably<em><a href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-15052009-BP/EN/2-15052009-BP-EN.PDF">Country 1Q real y/y GDP growth NSA / SA</a></em><br />Czech Republic -3.2% / -3.4%<br />Hungary -6.4% / -4.7%<br />Poland n.a.* / n.a.* (seen at 1.0-1.3% by MinFin, 1.0% by Bloomberg)<br />Slovakia -5.4% / -6.0%<br /><br />NSA - non-seasonally adjusted, SA - seasonally adjusted<br />* - will be published on May 29Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-68384188057301374142009-05-12T11:04:00.009+02:002009-05-23T10:14:16.059+02:005 Years of Central Europe in the EU<div style="text-align: justify;">The European Commission published a <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication14078_en.pdf">study</a> summarizing the economic effects of the historic 2004 EU enlargement. The main findings say that:<br /></div><ul><li>the accession process has contributed to significantly improve living standards in the new Member States, [...]</li><li>rapid trade integration has fostered a more efficient division of labor and strengthened competitiveness in the EU</li><li>investments from old Member States have been a key driver of economic transformation in the new Member States</li><li>new investment opportunities created by enlargement helped enterprises in the old Member States to strengthen their global competitiveness [...]<br /></li><li>workers in the new Member States have profited from improved employment opportunities at home and abroad, [...]<br /></li><li>in old Member States, concerns raised about massive labor migration prior to enlargement have not materialized<br /></li></ul><div style="text-align: justify;">During the five years, Central Europe has proceeded to gain freedom in labor movement, typical for full EU membership. Restrictions to free movement of labor now remain only in Germany and Austria. The countries acceded to the Schengen area of free borders and won visa waiver for traveling to the United States. In addition, Slovakia joined the Eurozone in January this year.<br />Local economies experienced a swift <a href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tsieb020">growth</a> in 2004-8. Regional average GDP per capita increased from 61.5% of the EU average in 2004 to <a href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tsieb010">67.7%</a> four years later (arithmetic average of V4 countries). <a href="http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&language=en&pcode=tps00001&tableSelection=1&footnotes=yes&labeling=labels&plugin=1">Population</a> in V4 stayed stagnant - at 63.9-64.0 million. The number of inhabitants grew noticebly only in the Czech Republic (from 10.2 to current 10.5 million). The EU27's total population is expected to reach 500 million sometime later this year.<br /></div>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-90731080244794693312009-05-10T18:13:00.011+02:002009-05-23T10:14:44.272+02:00Bratislava Public Transportation in Three Countries<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWWwNl1wbuBkFqG9teKpzVjN3lzokGC7-P7KR1M3nLegA-buq2emldod27D6BjTZXP4jI6TCtwe8k5-GawXNuBjGQzpwoR8oLA0z7GR55GaVgqneHv5LvbnMInekUdynkirIskaR2b3bg/s1600-h/ba.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 200px; height: 186px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWWwNl1wbuBkFqG9teKpzVjN3lzokGC7-P7KR1M3nLegA-buq2emldod27D6BjTZXP4jI6TCtwe8k5-GawXNuBjGQzpwoR8oLA0z7GR55GaVgqneHv5LvbnMInekUdynkirIskaR2b3bg/s200/ba.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5334231491183693410" border="0" /></a>From September on, Bratislava system of public transportation will span three countries. Apart from Slovakia, local buses operate a line to Austrian town of Hainburg an der Donau and a border village Wolfsthal. Later this year, the EU funds will pay for most of the costs of another line to Hunagrian village of Rajka, where many Slovaks <a href="http://ce-economics.blogspot.com/2008/07/bw-here-comes-booming-bratilava.html">moved</a> during the last year or two. This development owes to the Schengen system of free movement across most of EU borders. Apart from Bratislava, only Swiss <a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/99/Basel_-_Regio-S-Bahn_Basel_-_Netzplan.jpg">Basel</a> public transportation is known to the author to service two other countries (France and Germany) apart from its homeland.</div>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-6223528420248137412009-04-27T11:57:00.009+02:002009-05-23T10:15:16.600+02:00Czecho-Slovakia's Revival at the IMF, WB<div style="text-align: justify;">The Czech Republic and Slovakia signed an agreement on joint representation at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Sixteen years after the two republics peacefully split, the two states will have only one representative in the IMF (a Slovak), and one (a Czech) at the World Bank. After four years, this composition will switch. The agreement aiming at cost saving has been signed by the Czech and Slovak representatives in Washington, D.C. (read <a href="http://www.ceskenoviny.cz/tema/index_view.php?id=373384&id_seznam=1952">ČTK's report</a>)</div>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6507936672698431313.post-50223166662155714132009-04-12T11:40:00.021+02:002009-05-23T10:15:43.949+02:00Falling By How Much?<div style="text-align: justify;"><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXH_hegPzSg6CPWlc_qK21PuO3EyN0RiewRCrfxUg6u1wpW7yib_FZWJVTr4HHh75BAr5AyX318r8fNVAhdykXKi2p4LAaC0-RYcdBgnJ7VGzWf1440RpW2ut-ArHaapGgiDs39WFJ8yo/s1600-h/going+negative.jpg"><img style="margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer; width: 181px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXH_hegPzSg6CPWlc_qK21PuO3EyN0RiewRCrfxUg6u1wpW7yib_FZWJVTr4HHh75BAr5AyX318r8fNVAhdykXKi2p4LAaC0-RYcdBgnJ7VGzWf1440RpW2ut-ArHaapGgiDs39WFJ8yo/s200/going+negative.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5326337467636348258" border="0" /></a>Revisions of macroeconomic forecasts bring worse and worse predictions for the V4 economies. The latest prediction of the National Bank of Slovakia expects local GDP to shrink by 2.4%. Last year, Slovak economy expanded by 6.4%.<br />Hungarian authorities already calculate with a recession of <a href="http://www.etrend.sk/servis/spravy-sita/nova-madarska-vlada-ocakava-6-percentny-pokles-ekonomiky/165044.html">5.5-6.0%</a> in this most-hit Central-European country (majority of analysts expected <a href="http://www.budapesttimes.hu/content/view/11518/221/">4-5%</a> decline).<br />An <a href="http://www.cnb.cz/cs/menova_politika/prognoza/">older</a> (February) forecast of the Czech National Bank counts with an economic decline of only 0.3% in the Czech Republic. IMF expects <a href="http://www.financninoviny.cz/zpravy/mmf-ceska-ekonomika-klesne-o-1-3-procenta/371019?id=371032">-1.3%</a>.<br />By the end of March, Polish central bank expected a <a href="http://www.kansascity.com/business/story/1117699.html">1.1%</a> growth for Poland, which would make the country the only economy in the EU to grow. Similar estimate was released by The Economist Intelligence Unit (<a href="http://www.polishmarket.com.pl/document/:19572?lang=PL">+0.9%</a>).<br />A good portrayal of the current state in the local automotive sector, one of the leading and most-hit industries, can be found at <a href="http://businessneweurope.eu/story1521">businessnewseurope</a>.</div>Michal Lehutahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14139431806948465091noreply@blogger.com0