Monday, December 31, 2007

How well does real GDP growth predict change in GDP per capita in PPS?

In one of my previous posts, I predicted that by 2009, Slovakia will overtake Portugal in GDP per capita in PPS. I calculated this from from real GDP growth forecasts of the European Commission (Eurostat) for 2009 and the 2008 forecasts of GDP per capita in PPS. How accurate is however this prediction?

For evaluating this, I graphed above the actual annual changes in GDP per capita in PPS relative to the EU27 average (x-axis; in percentage points) and the values predicted via calculation of real GDP growth (y-axis), using a very small dataset (n=13) of Slovakia between 1996-2008 (Data source: Eurostat1, Eurostat2). The correlation coefficient is 0.9304, the trend line is defined as y = 1.0038x - 0.2169 (R=1 would mean y = 1x + 0). The standard deviation of the actual values from the predictive model is however still too high for a conclusive answer about a minute positive difference between Slovakia and Portugal in 2009.

Friday, December 21, 2007

Central Europe joins Schengen area with no border controls

Source: BBC
(Curious is the fact that the map views Romania and Bulgaria as non-EU members, or alternativelly as not able to join the Schengen area)

Monday, December 17, 2007

In less than 2 years, Slovakia will overtake Portugal

Data 1995-2008: Eurostat (2007-8 are forecasts). The 2009 values were calculated from the real GDP growth rate forecasts, again by Eurostat.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Kotian: inflation won't threaten Slovak euro ambitions

Juraj Kotian, deputy chief economist of Erste Bank AG for Eastern Europe in Vienna speaks for Erste TV.