Draxler on the elections' results in CZ, SK

http://www.praguepost.com/opinion/4809-the-long-and-winding-road.html

Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia

Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are the three richest countries of the former Eastern Bloc with regard to GDP per person. Yet, their living standars still fall behind their Western-European counterparts'. Whereas Slovenia reaches roughly 62% of the Western-European average, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are only at 41-42%, and the rest of the region lies further down the chart. The Economist reports.

Moving This Blog

As my employer finally managed to upgrade its website, I will be moving much of the future posts from this blog to www.trendanalyses.sk (all articles are also in English). See, for example, our recent texts (1, 2) on distorted inflation figures published by the Slovak Statistical Office. RSS channel will soon be available for the TREND Analyses' homepage. Occasionally, however, there might be issues, links, graphs etc. that appear only in this blog, so please remain subscribed.

Unemployment Increasing Despite Season

Despite little smaller GDP decline in the second quarter as well as favorable summer season, registered unemployment in Slovakia continues to grow. In July, it reached 12.1% of labor force, and is expected to grow in the coming months as well. Current unemployment rate increase (4.6 percentage points annually) is the largest ever, and joblessness is now reaching highest levels since 2004. Strained labor market, where supply of labor abundantly exceeds the demand for it, is caused by global economic crisis, which manifests itself particularly in shrunk foreign demand for local exports. Lower production thus requires considerably fewer workers compared to times of economic boom in 2006-7.

In this context, the proposal of trade unions for increasing the statutory minimum wage by 8.1%, when consumer inflation approaches zero, must be regarded as irresponsible. Considerably increasing the minimum wage in times when many companies operate without any profits could endanger thousands more jobs in the economy.

One Central-European Stock Market?

Corporate finance in Central Europe is dominated by bank lending. However, 94 IPOs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange last year, together with Prague and Ljubljana exchanges being recently acquired by Wiener Börse, point to interesting developments.
For this year, privatization of Warsaw Stock Exchange is planned. This way, the Vienna exchange could theoretically overtake its regional rival and form Europe's eight largest market for shares. Or the acquisition can happen the other way around, with the privatized Polish exchange acquiring Wiener Börse. Nevertheless, for now both exchanges deny the possibility of allowing one to buy the other.
Largest stock exchanges in Europe according to market capitalization are: Euronext, LSE, Spanish exchange, Deutsche Börse and the Swiss exchange.

Capital Bears More of the Crisis Burden than Labor

Share of corporate operating surplus on gross value added. Share of labor compensation is the complement to 100%. Source: Eurostat.

Fed's Exit Strategy

Fed's chairman Ben Bernanke published an article in WSJ explaining the central bank's financial exit strategy after it pumped billions into the economy in an attempt to fight the negative effects of the crisis.
The Fed will need "to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem," Bernanke writes. This should be achieved by eliminating large reserve balances of banks. To do that, the Fed could increase its target for federal funds rate, attracting liquidity back into its own hands. Moreover, in case the federal funds rate does not react sufficiently to the rate Fed will pay on deposited reserves, the Reserve or the Treasury could arrange large-scale "reverse repurchase agreements" - that is, issuing their own securities and sterilizing thus gained liquidity.
The timing and pace of such instrument should best foster Fed's objectives of maximum employment and price stability, the chairman concludes.

NYT Coverage on Slovakia

"Neighbor’s Shadow Still Large in Slovakia". I am not sure the title is really capturing the main issue in the country, but the article provides ample important insights into the happenings in Slovakia.

Top 10 Slovak Companies in 2008

Rank, Name, Industry, Sales in 2008 (individual)

1. Volkswagen Slovakia, automotive, €5.37 billion
2. Slovnaft, oil refining, €4.03 billion
3. Samsung Electronics, electronics, €3.52 billion
4. U.S. Steel Košice, metallurgy, €2.93 billion
5. SPP, gas distribution, €2.90 billion
6. Kia Motors, automotive, €2.23 billion,
7. Slovenské elektrárne, energy, €1.96 billion
8. PCA Slovakia, automotive, €1.74 billion
9. Sony Slovakia, electronics, €1.40 billion
10. Západoslovenská energetika, energy, €1.11 billion

Source: TREND Top 200. Last year's results can be found in our earlier post.

V4 Wages Suffering from Currencies' Depreciation

Currency depreciations pulled down the Euro purchasing power of V4 wages in the first quarter of this year, with the exception of Slovakia, which had a fixed exchange rate to Euro de facto from May 28, 2008. For the first time, thus, average gross salary in Slovakia is not the lowest in Central Europe. Note: the 1q09 value for the Czech Republic is an estimate.