Sunday, April 12, 2009

Falling By How Much?

Revisions of macroeconomic forecasts bring worse and worse predictions for the V4 economies. The latest prediction of the National Bank of Slovakia expects local GDP to shrink by 2.4%. Last year, Slovak economy expanded by 6.4%.
Hungarian authorities already calculate with a recession of 5.5-6.0% in this most-hit Central-European country (majority of analysts expected 4-5% decline).
An older (February) forecast of the Czech National Bank counts with an economic decline of only 0.3% in the Czech Republic. IMF expects -1.3%.
By the end of March, Polish central bank expected a 1.1% growth for Poland, which would make the country the only economy in the EU to grow. Similar estimate was released by The Economist Intelligence Unit (+0.9%).
A good portrayal of the current state in the local automotive sector, one of the leading and most-hit industries, can be found at businessnewseurope.

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